So someone turned off the music on the game of musical chairs that was intended to determine which Republican will succeed indicted Congressman Chris Collins in the 27^th district. The candidates went round and round. Some of them felt that the game was just a charade and dropped out of contention on their own. Others either cling to the hope that it will all work out this fall, or maybe that they could position themselves for a special election in 2019.

The reason the music stopped is that party leaders have concluded that there is no way to remove Collins from the ballot in November. The options, according to state law, are death, moving out of state, or running for another office.

Moving out of state seems to have been ruled out in a 2008 federal court case involving the predecessor district to the one now in question.  The legal action, which involved local Republicans, resulted in a failed Democratic primary candidate being unable to get off of the Working Families Party line even though he moved out of the state.

All sorts of options have been floated about running for another office. They included running Collins for town clerk anywhere in the state; or maybe for the State Assembly; or maybe for town assessor in Eden. Eden folks didn’t take too kindly to that idea. But then Erie County Republican Elections Commissioner Ralph Mohr pointed out that the Public Officers Law requires a candidate to be a resident of the location where they are a candidate by Election Day, so that won’t work even if there was a cooperative local Republican committee somewhere.

The final desperate suggestion involved getting a current town justice or councilman in Clarence, where Collins does in fact reside, to resign to let him run in that person’s place. Upon reflection Republican leaders likely recognized that such a move would poison their well, hurting other candidates.

So what they are left with is the unsightly prospect of promoting the candidacy of a candidate who is under federal indictment and is likely headed for jail. The heavy Republican/Trump lean in the district makes it plausible that the indicted candidate, however, could win re-election.  So in November 2018 it will be “Vote for Collins. Party over principles!”

If that were to happen a Collins conviction, probably in 2019, would create a vacancy in the seat. Republican chances of winning a special election would be better than they will be this year as they attempt to elect a future felon.

Into the breach stepped Donald Trump, who chastised his Attorney General for indicting Collins and Congressman Duncan Hunter of California, potentially jeopardizing two Republican House seats. Hunter is the bright light who got nailed for using his campaign account for such things as a family vacation to Italy and airfare for their pet rabbit. Party over principles!

Collins on the ballot will definitely make things uncomfortable for other candidates. “So Mr. Molinaro/Assemblyman/Senator (R/Trump), do you support the candidacy of your running mate, Congressman Chris Collins?”

Or … just maybe, Collins accepts a plea deal to minimize the hurt to his son, and does so in the next several weeks, resigning from Congress in the process, and allowing the Republicans to quickly re-start the musical chairs game.

Meanwhile, day-by-day, Democratic candidate Nate McMurray moves forward.

This election is going to be a very interesting one to watch.

Last pre-primary campaign financials

Next Thursday, September 13^th, is primary Election Day. Candidates involved in the primary were required by September 4^th to report on their campaign finances as of August 31^st. Here’s a summary of what the candidates raised and spent since August 9^th and what they still have in the campaign accounts:

Governor – Democratic primary

Andrew Cuomo, Democrat. Incumbent. Raised: $183,218   Spent: $8,534,482   Balance: $16,094,891

Cynthia Nixon, Democrat. Raised: $475,168   Spent: $450,276   Balance: $466,749

Lieutenant Governor – Democratic primary

Kathy Hochul, Democrat. Incumbent: Raised: $356,262   Spent: $1,527,457, including $1.4 million for TV ads.   Balance: $390,232

Jumaane Williams, Democrat. Raised: $62,165   Spent: $37,785   Balance: $71,856; Williams has thus far only refunded $20,000 of the $45,000 in previously noted over-contributed corporate donations.

Attorney General – Democratic primary

Leecia Eve. Raised: $138,988, including a personal loan of $100,000. Spent: $255,604   Balance: $42,936

Letitia James. Raised: $428,266   Spent: $766,638   Balance: $867,357

Sean Patrick Maloney. Raised: $1,649,352.  Of that amount, $1,425,000 was a transfer from Maloney’s congressional campaign account.   Spent: $1,953,106   Balance: $491,318

Zephyr Teachout. Raised: $545,377   Spent: $617,745   Balance: $498,273

63^rd Senate District – Democratic primary

Timothy Kennedy, Democrat. Incumbent. Raised: $111,252   Spent: $212,087, which included $141,500 to Stonefront Political Media, San Francisco, for TV ads and other services.   Balance: $548,614

Shaqurah Zackery, Democrat. Raised: $2,340   Spent: $2,340 Balance: $0. Her report shows $68,219 in loans and liabilities, including $57,937 to Gallagher Printing, Clarence.

Erie County Court Judge – Democratic, Republican, Working Families, Independence, Reform primaries

Suzanne Maxwell Barnes, Democrat. Raised: $1,000 Spent: $85,497, mostly for TV ads. Balance: $25,796

Debra Givens, Republican. Raised: $1,800   Spent: $9,516   Balance: $31,795

Erie County Clerk – Independence, Reform primaries involving Kearns

Michael Kearns, Republican. Incumbent. Raised: $11,454   Spent: $2,304   Balance: $51,025

Angela Marinucci, Democrat. Not involved in a primary.