Early voting is complete. Polling places are open as this post is published. We should be able to determine most of the winners before the evening is done.
This post is intended to provide some historic context for the numbers will we soon see.
Party registrations – 2022
Per state Board of Elections data released in February 2022, here are the numbers for party registrations, broken down by Erie County; upstate (defined here as everything north of Westchester County except Erie County); New York City; and the City’s suburbs:
Democrats Republicans
- Erie County 305,391 162,443
- Upstate 1,490,439 1,385,576
- New York City 3,490,742 519,014
- City’s suburbs 1,185,524 781,861
- Totals 6,472,096 2,848,894
Past primary results
For governor
- Democrats
- 2002 – Erie County – McCall 44,153 (82%); Cuomo 9,388 (18%); turnout 17%
- 2002 – Statewide – McCall 539,883 (85%); Cuomo 93,195 (15%); turnout 12%
- 2006– Erie County – Spitzer 35,345 (69%); Suozzi 15,556 (31%); turnout 15%
- 2006 – Statewide – Spitzer 624,684 (82%); Suozzi 138,263 (18%); turnout 14%
- 2014– Erie County – Cuomo 42,310 (77%); Teachout-10,112 (18%); Credico 2,780 (5%); turnout 18%
- 2014 – Statewide – Cuomo 361,380 (63%); Teachout 192,210 (33%); Credico 20,760 (4%); turnout 10%
- 2018 – Erie County – Cuomo 50,595 (65%); Nixon 26,773 (35%); turnout 26%
- 2018 – Statewide – Cuomo 1,021,160 (66%); Nixon 537,192 (34%); turnout 25%
- Republicans
- 2010 – Erie County – Paladino 46,637 (93%); Lazio 3,414 (7%); turnout 29%
- 2010 – Statewide – Paladino 295,336 (62%); Lazio – 184,348 (38%); turnout 17%
For lieutenant governor
- Democrats
- 2002 – Erie County – Mehiel 25,070 (77%); King (7,487 (23%); turnout 17%
- 2002 – Statewide – Mehiel 340,576 (71%); King 137,981 (29%); turnout 12%
- 2014– Erie County – Hochul 44,003 (80%); Wu 11,108 (20%); turnout 18%
- 2014 – Statewide – Hochul 329,089 (60%); Wu 217,614 (40%); turnout 10%
- 2018 – Erie County – Hochul 59,608 (78%); Williams 16,991 (22%); turnout 26%
- 2018 – Statewide – Hochul 768,029 (53%); Williams 669,068 (47%); turnout 25%
Erie County Clerk
- Democrats
- 2002 – David Swarts 29,891 (61%); Francis Pordum 18,828 (39%); turnout 17%
A few footnotes
- Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately in the primary, but as a ticket in November. When the candidates for the two offices pair up in the primary, results in the lieutenant governor primary might suggest that voters are sending a message of some sort to the gubernatorial candidate they vote for by voting for a lieutenant governor candidate aligned with a different candidate for governor.
- In every one of the seven Democratic primaries for governor or lieutenant governor over the past twenty years the candidate endorsed by the party at its convention has won.
- 2022 is only the second statewide primary election in New York of the twelve since 1978 where a Cuomo isn’t appearing on the statewide ballot.
- A change in the Election Law approved in 2021 provides that “[a] person designated as a candidate for two or more party nominations for an office to be filled at the time of a general election who is not nominated at a primary election by one of more such parties may decline the nomination of one or more parties not later than ten days after the primary election.” Should the Working Families Party candidate for Governor, Jumaane Williams, or the Republican and Conservative Parties candidate for Governor, Lee Zeldin, fail to win their primaries they can drop out of the races altogether, letting the parties involved substitute a different candidate for the November election.
- There are relatively few contested races for party committee members in the 848 Erie County election districts in the June 28th primary. The Democrats have only 11 races; the Republicans 17; and the Conservatives 20.
- Coming up: the primaries for Congress and the State Senate in the 60th district on August 23rd.
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