The Carl and Nick show heats up

Thanks to that obscure State Supreme Court Judge in Bath, we are getting ready for August 23rd congressional and state Senate primaries.  You will be reminded about that whenever you turn on the TV.

It appears that Carl Paladino is spending a lot more than Nick Langworthy on TV at the moment, mostly because he has a lot more personal money to spend.  In a previous post I noted that much of the TV money is wasted since it is mostly being seen by people who are not Republican, or do not live in the new 23rd district.

A recent flair-up between the contestants involved Paladino declining the opportunity to debate.  Langworthy wants multiple debates.

Unconfirmed reports from the Paladino camp indicate that he is ahead in internal polls.  Could be.  I’ve never heard of an internal poll that said the candidate sponsoring the poll was behind.  Show us the numbers.

Paladino is dodging debates because he considers himself ahead and sees no need to give free attention to Langworthy.  Also, Langworthy would be better prepared to debate the issues than Carl.

A standard rule in politics is that you seek multiple debates when you are behind, which is as likely as not motivating Langworthy.  There won’t be any debates.

This race is drawing an incredibly low range of public and politico attention. Turnout will be in the 10 to 15 percent range. Signs pop here and there for both, many on vacant corners. Both candidates are undoubtedly visiting events throughout the expansive district, talking to small pre-assembled gatherings of supporters.

Langworthy should be getting some assistance from the party establishment, particularly in Erie County.  What that is worth in real votes is debatable.  (Note the loss of the Erie County Republican Party-endorsed candidate for sheriff in 2021.)  Paladino seems like a natural fit for the small Trumpian base of voters who will actually show up on August 23.

The Trump base and Paladino supporters are, unlike the general population, willing to accept Hitler adoration quotes and the comments tinged with what many would consider racism.  Such things will not deter their votes.

Langworthy is your basic establishment Republican.  That is what many MAGA voters would call a RINO (Republican in Name Only).  He is playing up his connections to Trump, but bottom line, he is a party leader.  He has support from other party leaders who think he will fit in better with the namby-pamby leadership of Kevin McCarthy and company.  He will follow the party line, which leans establishment when it comes to those all-important big dollar contributions.

Paladino, if he is elected, will join the party’s crazy caucus that includes Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Laura Boebert, Jim Jordan, Paul Gosar, maybe Sarah Palin, and others who will have a large voting block of the caucus and thankfully will drive McCarthy crazy too.

Is it too early to bring back a point I made in a previous post that Kevin McCarthy, in one person, lacks all the characteristics that the Cowardly Lion, the Tin Man, and the Scarecrow were seeking on their road to Oz?

Paladino appears ahead in the Republican primary, and he is running out the clock. What can Langworthy do to reverse that?

There are a lot more Republicans than Democrats in the district, but there are also nearly 200,000 registered voters not affiliated by party. Perhaps some of them, and the Democrats, and some rational Republicans could assist Max Della Pia in making the race in the 23rd district more interesting after August 23rd.

Thinking of changing your party affiliation?

The quirky legal decision coming from that Judge in Bath creates an interesting situation concerning the August 23rd Republican primary.

The Judge in his infinite wisdom decreed for the August 23, 2022, that primary voters can change their party affiliation right up until the day of the primary.  That means that Democrats and unaffiliated voters (and Conservatives and Working Families voters too) could become Republicans in time to vote in the Paladino/Langworthy race.  And then, of course, they could go back to the party or independent status they had prior to next February.

Such things have been occurring throughout the country.  It is probably not worth the effort in this case, considering the two available candidates, but at least you can have this once-in-a-lifetime option.

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