Election data to put the June 28th primaries in perspective

Early voting is complete.  Polling places are open as this post is published.  We should be able to determine most of the winners before the evening is done.

This post is intended to provide some historic context for the numbers will we soon see.

Party registrations – 2022

Per state Board of Elections data released in February 2022, here are the numbers for party registrations, broken down by Erie County; upstate (defined here as everything north of Westchester County except Erie County); New York City; and the City’s suburbs:

                                                    Democrats          Republicans

  • Erie County                        305,391               162,443
  • Upstate                              1,490,439            1,385,576
  • New York City                   3,490,742            519,014
  • City’s suburbs                    1,185,524            781,861
  • Totals                                  6,472,096             2,848,894

Past primary results

For governor

  • Democrats                        
    • 2002 – Erie County – McCall 44,153 (82%); Cuomo 9,388 (18%); turnout 17%
    • 2002 – Statewide – McCall 539,883 (85%); Cuomo 93,195 (15%); turnout 12%
    • 2006– Erie County – Spitzer 35,345 (69%); Suozzi 15,556 (31%); turnout 15%
    • 2006 – Statewide – Spitzer 624,684 (82%); Suozzi 138,263 (18%); turnout 14%
    • 2014– Erie County – Cuomo 42,310 (77%); Teachout-10,112 (18%); Credico 2,780 (5%); turnout 18%
    • 2014 – Statewide – Cuomo 361,380 (63%); Teachout 192,210 (33%); Credico 20,760 (4%); turnout 10%
    • 2018 – Erie County – Cuomo 50,595 (65%); Nixon 26,773 (35%); turnout 26%
    • 2018 – Statewide – Cuomo 1,021,160 (66%); Nixon 537,192 (34%); turnout 25%
  • Republicans
    • 2010 – Erie County – Paladino 46,637 (93%); Lazio 3,414 (7%); turnout 29%
    • 2010 – Statewide – Paladino 295,336 (62%); Lazio – 184,348 (38%); turnout 17%

For lieutenant governor

  • Democrats
    • 2002 – Erie County – Mehiel 25,070 (77%); King (7,487 (23%); turnout 17%
    • 2002 – Statewide – Mehiel 340,576 (71%); King 137,981 (29%); turnout 12%
    • 2014– Erie County – Hochul 44,003 (80%); Wu 11,108 (20%); turnout 18%
    • 2014 – Statewide – Hochul 329,089 (60%); Wu 217,614 (40%); turnout 10%
    • 2018 – Erie County – Hochul 59,608 (78%); Williams 16,991 (22%); turnout 26%
    • 2018 – Statewide – Hochul 768,029 (53%); Williams 669,068 (47%); turnout 25%

Erie County Clerk

  • Democrats
    • 2002 – David Swarts 29,891 (61%); Francis Pordum 18,828 (39%); turnout 17%

A few footnotes

  • Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately in the primary, but as a ticket in November.  When the candidates for the two offices pair up in the primary, results in the lieutenant governor primary might suggest that voters are sending a message of some sort to the gubernatorial candidate they vote for by voting for a lieutenant governor candidate aligned with a different candidate for governor.
  • In every one of the seven Democratic primaries for governor or lieutenant governor over the past twenty years the candidate endorsed by the party at its convention has won.
  • 2022 is only the second statewide primary election in New York of the twelve since 1978 where a Cuomo isn’t appearing on the statewide ballot.
  • A change in the Election Law approved in 2021 provides that “[a] person designated as a candidate for two or more party nominations for an office to be filled at the time of a general election who is not nominated at a primary election by one of more such parties may decline the nomination of one or more parties not later than ten days after the primary election.”  Should the Working Families Party candidate for Governor, Jumaane Williams, or the Republican and Conservative Parties candidate for Governor, Lee Zeldin, fail to win their primaries they can drop out of the races altogether, letting the parties involved substitute a different candidate for the November election.
  • There are relatively few contested races for party committee members in the 848 Erie County election districts in the June 28th primary.  The Democrats have only 11 races; the Republicans 17; and the Conservatives 20.
  • Coming up:  the primaries for Congress and the State Senate in the 60th district on August 23rd.

Follow me on Twitter @kenkruly

Final campaign financial reports before the June 28th primary; Trump begging for money

With a week to go until the June 28th primaries, candidates have filed their final financial reports with the state Board of Elections.  Donations of $1,000 or more received since June 17 will need to be reported over the next week within 24 hours of receipt.

Here are the numbers for the statewide candidates as well as the candidates for Erie County Clerk in the Democratic primary:

  • Governor Kathy Hochul collected an additional $944,387 since the last report on May 27th.  She has a balance of $12.7 million remaining in her campaign account.
  • Congressman Tom Suozzi, one of Hochul’s primary opponents, raised $525,864; balance $1,960,667.
  • New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, the third candidate in the Democratic primary, raised $49,225; balance $101,074.
  • Congressman Lee Zeldin, the endorsed Republican candidate for governor, raised $556,327; balance $2.1 million.
  • Former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino raised $210,227; balance $650,772.
  • Businessman Harry Wilson raised $209,562; balance $2 million.  He put in an additional $1 million of his personal money into the Republican primary race.
  • Donald Trump golf partner Andrew Guiliani raised $83,302; balance $344,453.
  • Congressman Antonio Delgado, Hochul’s lieutenant governor running mate, raised $819,832; transferred from congressional campaign account: $2.477 million; balance $1,761,510.
  • Suozzi’s running mate for lieutenant governor, Diana Reyna, raised $25,050; balance $100,542.
  • Ana Maria Archila, running with Williams, raised $64,819; balance $211,288.
  • Endorsed Democratic Erie County Clerk candidate Melissa Hartman raised $61,079; balance $21,996.
  • Republican endorsed candidate for Clerk, Mickey Kearns, who is running in the Democratic primary raised $624; balance $102,021.

The primaries – Part I – will be over soon.  Then we will head to the contests for Congress and the State Senate on August 23rd.

Donald Trump continues to prey upon his base for money

We have been told forever by Donald J. Trump that Donald J. Trump is a billionaire.  Time-to-time reporting in legal proceedings tells us that he lies frequently about questions concerning his net worth.  The January 6th Committee hearings have exposed fraud involving his campaign fundraising.  Trump’s non-existent Official Election Defense Fund raised $250 million, preying on uninformed donors who thought they were providing money to make his case for the Big Lie.

It is reported that his campaign committee has more than $100 million in the bank, although those pesky legal fees coming from, what is it now, a thousand cases?, must be eating into the totals.  So why does he keep asking me for money?

Readers of this blog know that I am a Democrat, but the way things work in politics these days mailing lists get used, sold, brought back to life.  In February 2016 I traveled to South Carolina to observe the presidential primaries.  Among other things I attended two Trump rallies, which required pre-registration.  About three months ago I started receiving daily texts from Trump asking or demanding cash in all sorts of manner.  Recently they have been coming at a pace of four or five per day. 

Here’s a sampling of recent Trump texts (the shouting CAPITALIZATIONS are his):

  • CONGRATS! Pres. Trump selected YOU to be the FIRST EVER Trump Supporter to receive a 7X-IMPACT!  1 HOUR!  Claim NOW.
  • Pres Trump:  I won’t reach out again.  If you want your SIGNED MAGA HAT, VIP RALLY TICKETS & a PHOTO WITH ME you must claim NOW.
  • BRAND NEW TRUMP MERCH ALERT>> TRUMP GOLF BALLS.  Get a hole-in-one with these INCREDIBLE TRUMP GOLF BALLS.  Only 645 left!
  • YOUR PAYMENT IS INCOMPLETE, Ken.  President Trump requested $35 to:  SAVE AMERICA
  • Member #7584.  You are REQUIRED to report for your Trump Membership service.  Your service status is INCOMPLETE.  Complete IMMEDIATELY.
  • Your order has SHIPPED.  Your ULTRA MAGA SLIM CAN COOLIES are ready to be claimed.  If you don’t, we won’t offer them again.
  • Pres. Trump:  Why wait?  I’ve asked you before & now I’m asking ONE LAST TIME.  Do you stand with me?
  • @realDonaldTrump.  I have something for you, Ken, Your OWN TRUMP GOLD CARD.  This is HISTORIC.  Will you claim.
  • Pres. Trump:  For your eyes only, Ken.  I only selected 10 Patriots to become Trump MVPs.  You were 1 of them!
  • Ken – we’re begging you.  President Trump wants to BREAK A RECORD this month.  Final chance to claim your 600%-IMPACT

And so it goes.  The Trump luster is starting to fade.  Pence and DeSantis keep nibbling away at him, and sooner or later the likes of Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo, etc. will start to crawl out from hiding as they develop a FOMO (fear of missing out).  Who knows, one of them may offer a 10X-IMPACT for your donation or maybe two autographed pictures.

Early voting

Early voting for the June 28th primary for governor, lieutenant governor, and local offices such as Erie County Clerk, continues through Sunday, June 26th.  Information about locations and times of voting in Erie County can be found at this link https://www.elections.erie.gov/pdfs/EARLYVOTING%202022new6.pdf .  Information about early voting in other counties can be found on the counties’ Board of Elections websites. 

Follow me on Twitter @kenkruly