So it’s over.  Two demographically unrepresentative states that will not be in play in November have spoken – well at least the relatively few voters who participated in those states have spoken.  Trump is the presumptive presidential nominee of the Republican Party.  Republicans in the other 48 states can rest up.

None of that is a surprise.  Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party has sucked all the oxygen out the party.  His grievance laden campaign is about the past – mostly his past – and his future outlook is focused on his legal problems.  Issues will be mostly irrelevant in 2024 or simply used for bumper-sticker slogans and stump speeches.  His recent efforts to stymie potential bi-partisan immigration reform legislation demonstrates his cynicism about actually getting anything positive done about this critical matter.

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Western New York seems to like congressional elections.  We like it so much that sometimes we do it three times in a congressional election year.

Consider the case of NY23 in its present design and its linear predecessors, a district which in the 2010s became like the Bermuda triangle of congressional districts. Max McCarthy held the seat for three terms in the sixties. After Jack Kemp held the seat for 18 years Bill Paxon was elected. He was a rising star in the House Republican caucus until he wasn’t and left Congress unexpectedly after five terms. Paxon was succeeded by Tom Reynolds who served for five terms and was a rising star in the House Republican caucus until he wasn’t. Then the seat bounced around.

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