Some facts, observations and heard-on-the-streets

/ Ken Kruly

We are finally getting into the real part of the presidential campaign where people actually get to cast a vote, as opposed to standing in a corner of a gymnasium raising their hands. Were they really voting for Sanders or did they just need to use the restroom?

Anyway, speaking as a long-term political junkie, I’m still wondering, why, oh why do campaigns have to go on so long? Here are some facts, observations and heard-on-the-streets:

  • We should be getting some final, final Iowa Caucus numbers any day now depending on whether or not there is a recount. In the meantime, who cares?
  • Iowa should go last, which they won’t, or other states should amend their election calendars to say that their presidential primaries will occur on whatever day Iowa sets for their caucuses.
  • You know that this is really crazy when you see old fuddy-duddy Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defending the Caucuses.
  • We all sometimes send out emails or texts that we wish we could have back, so I’d give Erie County Democratic Chairman and Board of Elections Commissioner Jeremy Zellner a mulligan for sending out this tweet shortly after 8 pm on February 3rd, the night of the Iowa caucus: “The Iowa Democratic Party is the only source for caucus results. Visit thecaucuses.org to view the results.”
  • I did that a number of times that evening. It reminded me of results-posting snafus of the Erie County Board of Elections in recent years, but it can be confirmed that the Board staff had nothing to do with counting the Iowa results.
  • It would be nice to fast forward to March 3rd, Super Tuesday, when about one-third of all the delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be chosen, but alas, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina beckon.
  • Petitions for delegates to the Democratic National Convention were filed with the New York State Board of Elections on February 6th for:
    • Michael Bennet
    • Joe Biden
    • Michael Bloomberg
    • Pete Buttigieg
    • Tulsi Gabbard
    • Amy Klobuchar
    • Deval Patrick
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Tom Steyer
    • Elizabeth Warren
    • Andrew Yang
  • Delegates will be elected on a congressional district basis and there will also be delegates selected by the state committee.   Delegate candidates supporting presidential contenders who drop out will not be listed on the ballot on April 28th.
  • Members of the National Committee, members of Congress, and the Governor will be delegates, but will only vote if the Convention goes beyond one ballot.
  • In the 26th and 27th Congressional Districts, petitions for delegate candidates have been filed in support of Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang.  Notable delegate candidates include:
    • Supporting Biden:  Tim Kennedy, Jennifer Hibit, Demone Smith, Gayle Syposs, Len Lenihan, Margaret Murphy, Craig Bucki
    • Supporting Bernie Sanders:  Brian Nowak, Betty Jean Grant
    • Supporting Warren:  Mark Poloncarz, Mitch Nowakowski, Jerome Schad, Patrick Burke, Luke Wochensky
  • We may be heading to an actual contested convention with delegate counts split up among several candidates after Super Tuesday with no one holding a commanding lead. I for one think that would be a good thing, given the nature of politics in 2020. It would require compromise.
  • The Republican system of delegate selection in New York has been set up to basically shut off any opposition to fearless leader Donald Trump.
  • The United States Senate last week, by a vote of 52 to 48, determined that interference in American elections by foreign adversaries is okay with the Constitution, and the Constitution says that the President cannot do anything wrong – but maybe it wasn’t the American Constitution they were working from.
  • Meanwhile, things have crystalized in the special election for Congress in NY27. Democrats selected Nate McMurray, the Republicans chose Chris Jacobs, and the Conservatives have said “pass.”
  • That means that the Conservatives believe Chris Jacobs is not conservative enough for their politics but they are afraid to put up a real conservative in the race less that hurts the chances of electing a Republican (Jacobs) in the special election. If, however, Jacobs defeats Parlato in the June Republican primary, the Conservatives will nominate Parlato for State Supreme Court in the Bronx or Manhattan, substitute Jacobs as their congressional candidate, and then declare Jacobs to be a great conservative.
  • Federal campaign financials for NY27 were filed at the end of January. They show that:
    • Jacobs raised $1,064,269 since April 2019, which included a personal loan of $446,000. He spent $276,305 and had cash on hand of $787,964.
    • Beth Parlato had receipts of $373,582, disbursements of $39,698, and cash on hand of $333,884.
    • Robert Ortt collected $210,565 since July 2019, including a personal loan of $55,000. He spent $40,155 and had $170,410 on hand at the end of January.
    • Stefan Mychajliw raised nothing and spent nothing from a federal campaign account; his federal committee was only created on January 22nd. As noted in a previous post, however, he spent tens of thousands of dollars out of his state-filed campaign account during the past year for activities that appear related to a congressional campaign. That is generally considered illegal.
    • The White House staff guy who suddenly appeared from out-of-the-blue and said he wanted to be the member of Congress from NY27 did not have a federal committee formed as of the end of January.
    • McMurray raised $334,654 since January 2019, spent $129,624, and had $217,109 in the bank as of January 31.
    • Brian Higgins had $1,194,502 cash on hand at the end of January, having raised $671,811 since January 2019. He spent $340,220 during the past year. Higgins has no declared opponent.
  • Petitions go out for federal and state party nominations on February 25th.
  • There will be a barnburner of a Republican primary in NY27 between Jacobs and Parlato but at the moment it appears that the only possible primaries for state legislative seats might be for the 140th District seat of retiring Assemblyman Robin Schimminger and the 61st Senate District seat of retiring Senator Michael Ranzenhofer.
  • Mayor Byron Brown was supposed to be happy that Barbara Miller-Williams would be the new Buffalo City Comptroller, given their long-time political association. But it seems that alliance is fraying as the Brown administration refuses to discuss a plan for re-building the City’s totally depleted reserve fund. Without a reserve fund City government is walking on a high wire without a net, which is only fine if you are Nick Wallenda.